A rchive Date
[ 20-02-2003 ]
Category
[ International Relations ]
sub-Categoy
[ Iraq ]
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[http://www.canoe.ca/Columnists/madely.html
Cracks are beginning to show
By STEVE MADELY - Ottawa Sun
February 20, 2003
Two newspaper reports out of London are very intriguing.
One story, that at least three huge cargo ships suspected of carrying tons of Iraq's banned weapons have been circling about the Indian Ocean since November, is an exclusive report from the Independent, a well-respected British broadsheet.
It claims American and British intelligence officials have been tracking the ships since they left ports in Jordan and Syria last November, days after UN weapons inspector Hans Blix led weapons inspectors back into Iraq. The Independent says there are two theories on why the ships have not been stopped and searched by the international armada patrolling the seas.
First, there is the fear that if it is true the ships are carrying chemical, biological or nuclear material, the environmental damage would be horrendous should they be scuttled.
The second possibility is that a search and seizure might be strategically timed to provide the world with the smoking gun proof of Saddam's treachery.
It is important to note the Independent's report quotes civilian shipping sources, it does not purport that there has been some sort of leak from the British MI6 or American CIA, which given the highly classified nature of the information would stretch the story's credibility.
And then there is the other story, from the large Guardian newspaper chain, an item which CBS News picked up and further elaborated on yesterday; by the time you read this, the story may be covered by other services, perhaps refuted, perhaps further documented.
The Guardian's Luke Harding quotes Iraqi opposition sources, and the Cairo based al-Ahram newspaper, in reporting that Saddam Hussein's defence minister and other top generals have been placed under house arrest - on suspicion of plotting a coup. They and their families were supposedly taken into custody and being held as hostages while the defence minister continued to attend cabinet meetings, in order to give the appearance of normalcy.
CBS went even further, indicating its sources in Iraq believe that a number of generals, in addition to defence minister Gen. Sultan Hashaim Ahmad al-Jabburi Tai, have been accused of plotting a coup and some were executed, all of this occurring in the past week.
If true, the attempted coup report is both heartening and discouraging. It could mean, on the one hand, that all the American and Saudi covert efforts to foment a rebellion against Saddam by top military officers are working, and that the U.S. and British military buildup and threat of war has convinced at least some Iraqi generals that the time has come to assassinate Saddam or force him into exile.
However, if the CBS report is accurate and the plotting generals have been executed, it could be further proof that Saddam's personal security apparatus is so effectively interwoven, (a series of overlapping of spy and counterspy circles described by Janes Intelligence reports as virtually impenetrable), that no conspiracy to unseat him can go undiscovered.
All of which should remind us, very little about the current situation is either predictable, or straightforward.
For the anti-war marchers, chants of "Give Peace a Chance" and catchy but trite placard slogans may satisfy the need to protest war and all of its obvious evils.
INTENSE PRESSURE
But the inescapable conclusion any but those who actually support Saddam Hussein as a deep-down nice guy must reach is that the intense military pressure on him and those who surround him is our best chance of disarming Iraq without war - all the while understanding it is entirely consistent with his past behaviour that before relenting and allowing the inspectors back in he would be very inventive at finding ways to hide the tons of weapons we know he had in 1998.
Madely can be reached at (613) 739-5133 ext. 412 or by e-mail at steve.madely@ott.sunpub.com. Letters to the editor should be sent to oped@sunpub.com.
 World Fact Book (CIA)]
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