A rchive Date
[ 06-11-2000 ]
Category
[ International Relations ]
sub-Categoy
[ U.S ]
|
[Battleground America
Tuesday's presidential race is just too close to call
By ERIC MARGOLIS
Contributing Foreign Editor
November 5, 2000
Many American voters are clearly perplexed or dismayed by having to choose between: a) Al Gore, an unlikable, big-government, blowhard Washington politician with all the warmth of a scowling cigar store Indian; and b) amiable but shallow George W. Bush, who often sounds like he should be running for the Texas school system rather than president of the world's most powerful nation.
Voters are uncomfortable with these political test tube babies, bred and reared to dynastic politics. The two fringe candidates in the unthrilling 2000 election, leftist Ralph Nader and rightist Pat Buchanan, are at least self-made politicians and real people who say refreshingly heretical things. Ten per cent of voters remain undecided. Their last-minute mood swing may determine Tuesday's election.
In this female-oriented campaign, voters must struggle through the candidates' boring proposals on education, daycare, drug plans, taxes, and pensions, all as easily comprehensible as the instructions to your VCR. "Male" issues like foreign policy, defence and crime have been largely ignored.
The media nervously trumpets the race as neck-and-neck, with Gore holding a slight edge in the big states. One must be wary of America's print and electronic media, which are predominantly controlled by liberal Democrats. Surveys show 70%-80% of all journalists are registered Democrats. Hollywood, the mouthpiece of America's liberal left and far left, reinforces the pro-Democratic message through TV shows like The West Wing and romantic chick flicks about thinly disguised Clinton act-alikes.
Bush still holds a narrow lead in the popular vote, but he must overcome the daunting arithmetic of the all-important electoral college which elects the president (voters do not): Whoever wins a simple majority gets all the electoral votes of 48 out of 50 states. This curious system was designed as a safeguard against a demagogue buying mob votes by offering, say, free land or free whisk y. Ironically, in modern America, the electoral college gives an unfair advantage to populous states like California, New York, Illinois and Florida, whose large, urban minorities are routinely bought by promises of welfare handouts, government jobs and other freebies.
Two main camps
Step back from the melee of U.S. politics and blurry differences between Republicans and Democrats, and you see two main camps: a party of government, and a party of taxpayers.
The Democrats, like Canada's Liberals, are the party of government. They generally believe big government should perform active social engineering through regulation and income redistribution between social groups. Dems favour high taxes, centralized control from Washington, socialized medicine, abortion and gun control, and hate smokers.
Democrats range from moderates and conservatives - indistinguishable from Republicans - all the way over to the Sierra Club, Hollywood's movie Marxists, the leftish chic Jane Fonda-Hillary Clinton crowd and the male-hating lesbian left.
People who live off the public purse - teachers, government workers and bureaucrats, welfare recipients, single mothers - tend to be Democrats.
Blacks vote 98% Democratic. So, too, immigrants - for example, in California, where the non-white population has grown to 51% and Democrats now outnumber once-dominant Republicans thanks to a flood of Mexican and Asian immigrants.
Lawyers, America's most hated group after, perhaps, child molesters, are the biggest cash donors to the Democrats: In this race a whopping US$73 million. Next comes Hollywood, with $25 million; big public sector unions, $12.6 million; and teacher unions. Jews, though only 2% of the population, provide almost half the Democratic party's funding, and make up its single most influential group. Italians and Irish, once Democratic stalwarts, long ago decamped to the Republicans. Blacks and union members provide the party's foot soldiers. Gays and young women vote strongly Democratic.
Republicans, like Canada's Alliance party, are the party of taxpayers and investors. White men and a majority of married women vote Republican. Republicans favour less and smaller government, political decentralization to local levels, lower taxes, fewer regulations, the free market and decisions made by citizens rather than bureaucrats.
But Republicans are also split into two camps: the larger, moderates and libertarians, who believe in political, economic, and social laissez-faire; and the small but vocal Christian hard right, which seeks to impose its social beliefs about abortion, drink, censorship and sex on everyone. Also strongly Republican: America's military men and women, gun owners, small town dwellers, and big business - oil and gas, pharmaceuticals, defence, and demon tobacco. In all, Republicans have raised $187 million to the Democrats' $133 million - just for the presidential race. An equal amount will be spent on the Senate and House races. TV stations grow rich on political advertising.
Hispanics, America's fastest growing ethnic group, have voted Democratic in the past. However, Republicans, led by the Spanish-speaking Bush, are making important inroads among Hispanics, who tend, like many Republicans, to be socially conservative and family oriented. The Hispanic vote could very well determine the 2000 election.
America's forgotten minority of eight million Muslims, about 4% of voters, has suddenly become an important factor in this every-vote-counts race. Gore's decades-long financial support by the Israel lobby, his ardently pro-Israel stance and the recent bloodshed in Palestine, are driving Muslim voters to the Republicans, and could tip the balance in Michigan, Illinois, even California.
How much effect Bill Clinton, the Banquo's ghost of this election, will have is uncertain. Gore ignored his tarnished mentor until he became desperate for Clinton's campaign magic. Sexy Bill may help Gore with female voters, but his legacy of impeachment and fund-raising scandals might drive many undecided voters to the less tarnished Republicans.
The race for Congress
The race for Congress is even more important, though less colourful than the presidential contest. Congress controls the nation's spending and lawmaking. Americans often like to split their votes, giving one party control of Congress and the other the White House. During the past eight years, the Republican-run Congress kept a lid on spending, brought down the debt, and nurtured prosperity. Clinton's most important contribution was to do very little. He was, however, brilliant acting as a super emcee for the country and gushing emotion on TV.
But Clinton took credit for the historic economic boom fathered by Ronald Reagan. This could happen again, with Gore as president and the tightwad Republicans ruling the Hill.
But if the Democrats accomplish their cherished goal of retaking Congress, some of their most liberal members will become powerful committee chairmen, assuring higher government spending and higher taxes, both of which will hurt the still robust economy. Americans tend to be wary of trusting free-spending Democrats with their money. Tuesday's race will likely be decided in California, Florida, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio and Missouri. If Ralph Nader's Green Party siphons off too many left-wing votes, Gore could lose. Buchanan is off the radar scope.
As of now, Gore still leads in electoral votes, Bush in the popular vote. Bush might carry 30 states yet still lose the election. If Bush loses California, which is likely, he must win all the big Midwest states and Florida. The victor will carry many Congressional candidates on his coattails. In New York, the hated/adored Hillary Clinton seems likely to win her Senate race, a prelude to her presidential ambitions in 2004 or 2008. Election watchers should be prepared for a late night Tuesday.
This column's usually reliable crystal ball has gone cloudy. The last-minute leaking of Bush's drunk driving conviction 24 years ago may sway some votes. The race is too tight to call. Our best indicator may be the Tuesday stock market close: up, Bush wins; down, it's Gore.
Eric can be reached by e-mail at margolis@foreigncorrespondent.com
 World Fact Book (CIA)]
|