A rchive Date
[ 25-06-2000 ]
Category
[ International Relations ]
sub-Categoy
[ Syria ]
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[Following in his father's footsteps
Will Bashar Assad, a mild-mannered eye doctor, succeed as the new ruler of Syria?
By ERIC MARGOLIS
Contributing Foreign Editor
June 25, 2000
The idea that in our 21st century one person could inherit an entire country and its people seems absurdly medieval. But that is what has recently happened in four nations: North Korea, Morocco, Jordan, and, most lately, Syria.
Hafez al-Assad, who ruled Syria's 16.4 million people with an iron fist for three decades, died suddenly on June 10. His mild-mannered son, Bashar, a 34-year-old eye doctor, seemed an unlikely candidate to succeed the brilliant, crafty, ruthless Assad senior, who crushed all internal opposition, faced down the United States and, in Lebanon, became the first Arab leader to defeat Israel in war.
But Syria's ruling circles rushed to rally behind the inexperienced Bashar. The reason was not so much love of his father, but very real fear that a post-Assad power struggle would plunge Syria into civil war.
The Assads and their main supporters are Alawis, a highly secretive religious sect from the northern coastal mountains that is an offshoot of Shia Islam. Alawis believe in the divinity of Ali, the son-in-law of Prophet Mohammed. This is anathema to mainstream Sunni Muslims, who regard Alawis, and their cousins, the Druze, as heretics. Alawis are Syria's largest minority, about 11-12% of the predominantly Sunni Muslim nation.
Under Assad, who seized power in a 1971 military coup, Alawis gained control of the government, the ruling Baath party and security forces. A third of all senior Baath members, 21% of cabinet ministers, and 18 of 25 top military or intelligence commands were Alawis.
During the 1980s, and again recently, Sunni Muslims led by the underground Muslim Brotherhood rebelled against Alawi rule and the Baath party's socialism. All revolts were crushed.
In 1982, Assad's brutal brother, Rifaat, led the Presidential Guard against Sunni Islamist rebels in Hama, killing some 10,000 people. Mass arrests and torture by Syria's eight overlapping security agencies were common. The unloved Rifaat's threats to return from European exile and bid for power contributed to the rush to support his nephew, Bashar.
Fear of civil war
A power struggle could easily have sparked civil war between Alawis and Sunnis, between the four main Alawi clans (like the feuding Kurds of Iraq), between factions in the 316,000-man armed forces and the feared security services, and dragged in Syria's important Christian, Palestinian (250,000) and Armenian minorities. If Syria did dissolve into internal warfare, its hostile neighbours - Israel, Jordan, Turkey and Iraq - might be tempted to intervene.
In Damascus, the world's oldest continuously inhabited city, Baath leaders remain committed to their ambition of reuniting historical Syria. During the highly decentralized Ottoman Empire, the areas that are today Lebanon, Jordan, Palestine and Israel were part of Syria. France carved Lebanon out of Syria as a beachhead for French influence in the Levant, a strategy Paris pursues to this day. British imperialists created the mini-states of Jordan and Palestine from historical Syria, then promised Palestine to European Jews, the Arab Emir Faisal and to its Arab inhabitants.
Thirty years of conflict
In our era, the colliding ambitions of Greater Syria and Greater Israel led to 30 years of conflict over Lebanon and Jordan between the two regional powers. Bashar Assad and his backers may conclude Syria's feeble economy - only a third that of Israel - cannot afford continued confrontation.
Syria, the breadbasket of Ancient Rome, still exports wheat and some oil, but its infrastructure and military forces are increasingly outdated. Half of Syrians are under 15 years old. Syria's sputtering socialist economy won't make jobs, education or housing for this oncoming demographic wave.
From Morocco to Iraq, the Mideast's political vista is bleak and depressing. This column had hoped the new generation of Arab leaders would rise above the Mideast's squalid tribal politics by modernizing and democratizing their nations. Alas, not so. Morocco's new 34-year-old King Mohammed continues the medieval autocracy inherited from his father. Jordan's smart, likeable young King Abdullah seems unfortunately disinclined to lead Jordan to democracy.
Perhaps Dr. Bashar will surprise us. We wish him well. But running difficult countries like Syria tends to turn rulers nasty. Recall another young, promising, mild-mannered doctor, Francois Duvalier, who became Haiti's president - and soon turned into that legendary monster, Papa Doc.
Eric can be reached by e-mail at margolis@foreigncorrespondent.com
 World Fact Book (CIA)]
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