A rchive Date
[ 23-10-2005 ]
Category
[ International Relations ]
sub-Categoy
[ China ]
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[http://www.torontosun.com/News/Columnists/Margolis_Eric/2005/10/23/1274952.html
China's quick rise to power
By ERIC MARGOLIS
Sun, October 23, 2005
NANJING - This ancient Chinese imperial capital, former headquarters of Generalissimo Chiang Kaishek, and site of the infamous 1930s massacre of 300,000 Chinese by Japanese troops, is haunted by its magnificent but often sinister history.
History has also been on U.S. Defense Secretary Don Rumsfeld's mind. Last June, Rummy warned that China's military buildup was threatening Asia (read: U.S. interests.) Shades of the Cold War. It seemed Rumsfeld had found America a new primary enemy to replace the best of enemies, the USSR.
Glory in war, Japanese samurai used to say, is a function of your enemy's courage and strength. Arabs make miserable foes. You can't justify building new $20-billion carrier battle groups or supersubs because of a bunch of car-bombers.
Like Rummy, I also miss the Cold War. A Pentagon commendation hangs above my desk proclaiming my service to the U.S. as a genuine "Cold Warrior" in the anti-Soviet struggle - signed by Donald Rumsfeld, Secretary of Defense. (Details will be revealed in my posthumous memoirs.)
But China is not a new Soviet Union and Cold War days are gone. Still, the Pentagon and U.S. neoconservatives make no secret of their view of China emerging as a grave threat - that is, to U.S. hegemony over Central Asia and the Pacific.
During his visit to China this week, Rummy diplomatically downplayed his earlier warnings. But he and a procession of visiting senior U.S. officials have openly hectored China to stop saving, spend more, raise its exchange rate, play by international trade rules, and freeze military spending.
Such sermonizing is pretty rich coming from Washington, which is running mammoth deficits that have ignited worldwide inflation, living on money borrowed from Japan and China, waging two foreign wars and threatening to invade Syria and Iran. Rummy's Pentagon spends as much on defence as the world's next 10 powers combined.
China was until recent centuries the world's richest nation. The Chinese do not enjoy being lectured by a nation living in a huge glass house.
But Rummy is right when he says China's current military buildup threatens Taiwan. China now can wreck Taiwan's economy by bombarding its ports with over 800 missiles and throwing a submarine blockade around the island. China's new, long-range strike aircraft and more modern naval units may even be able to keep U.S. carriers far from Taiwan. The Pentagon has real concerns about defending Taiwan and is upgrading Guam as a new forward Pacific base.
Still, while U.S. warships patrol the Taiwan Strait, no Chinese warships cruise between Cuba and Miami. (The UN just reaffirmed the 50-year U.S. blockade of Cuba violates its resolutions.)
No military threat
Besides Taiwan, China poses no current military threat to any other Asian nation - except India, which can well look after itself. China has generally preferred to use its power and prestige to intimidate and overawe neighbours rather than invading them - with some notable exceptions.
The Bush administration and know-nothing Republicans are most unwise to seek a new Soviet-style enemy in China. The real threat we face is how to divide up dwindling world energy supplies.
Today, Americans, only 4% of the world's population, consume 25% of world oil. China, India and the EU want their share. Managing this demand and China's rapid emergence as a Pacific and world power will be America's most important strategic problem in the next 30 years.
This is a task for diplomats, not the Pentagon. America will have to learn to share energy and accept China as an equal in the Pacific.
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