A rchive Date
[ 13-04-2003 ]
Category
[ International Relations ]
sub-Categoy
[ Iraq ]
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[http://www.canoe.ca/Columnists/burnett.html
Uncertain future for Iraq
T.O. exiles see more questions than answers in post-Saddam era
By THANE BURNETT - Toronto Sun
April 13, 2003
Even in the desert, distance does not always offer a better view of what's ahead.
Turn on your television at this moment, and you can watch Iraq at almost the same minute in time. It's the rebirth of a nation, witnessed, as it happens, like no other regime change in history. A political and cultural evolution - charted in real time around the world.
But the reality we're watching at this minute will likely be vastly different than the Iraq - a cradle of civilization that grew from the gardens of Mesopotamia more than 7,000 years ago - to come.
When the Americans went into Baghdad to destroy Saddam Hussein's dynasty, looters managed within two days to steal an estimated 50,000 historical artifacts from the National Museum of Iraq. Even the past is being obliterated, or at least blurred, in Iraq.
Experts have found it easier to predict an American victory than what will happen from here on.
There are extremes in the images of a new Iraq - the post-Saddam era in which "freedom" is the mantra, but not yet the reality for a country still at war.
Ask Salam Saffar to gaze into the future.
Then ask Imad Khadduri.
Both are Iraqi-Canadians who found safety and new lives in the Toronto area. Both are grateful Saddam has lost his kingdom and, quite possibly, his life.
But that's the now. The two men - strangers who share the same birth country - are like day and pitch night in their predictions of what's to come.
Saffar, a 48-year-old Richmond Hill export-importer, sees the day when he can return to Iraq to help it rebuild. He revels in hope of what's to come.
"To go back there ... that's all I think about," he says.
"A lot of Iraqi-Canadians are now thinking about doing business between the two countries."
'Real improvements'
Saffar, who fled an Iraqi infantry unit in 1982 during the war with Iran, believes the world will see the seeds of democracy within weeks. And after six months, "real improvements will likely be in place."
The looting, which has moved across the country as sections of Iraq fall under the weight of the coalition, is understandable, he says. "They learned it from Saddam - the lesson that it's (all right) to use power."
It's also a way to lash out at the old regime and will soon simmer down, Saffar predicts. He still has a brother and sister in the northern Iraqi city of Algosh.
"They are very happy. They expect better things (to come)," he says. "If you were to give Iraq five years and it were to have a government like Canada, then that would be a very good thing."
Khadduri is not so optimistic. In fact, on the day we talk his mouth is dry with raw emotion pouring out.
He sees Iraq at this minute and he fears disaster.
The former Iraqi nuclear scientist, who came to Canada in 1998, says: "It's a steam pressure-cooker.
"The Americans have no idea what they've done. They should leave now and let (the rebuilding) in the hands of the people of Iraq. And (as the coalition leaves), we wouldn't want to say, 'Thank you.' "
Khadduri is angry at the notion of a smooth transition, under coalition control, from chaos to order to democratic freedom, saying "What they've brought is not freedom. It turns my soul."
"Those who think the U.S. can simply reshape the country are fooling themselves, says the Richmond Hill computer teacher.
"It will blow up in their faces," he predicts with sadness.
If the two men represent the extremes of predictions for Iraq's near future, there are any number of scenarios being painted which fall between them.
In the short term, the U.S. government has invested more than $300-million worth of food to feed Iraq. As well, more than 227,635 blankets, 12,080 rolls of plastic sheeting and 127,100 water containers are landing in the country.
Companies are lining up to cash in on the rebuild, with several contracts already awarded to American firms, including one to manage the Umm Qasr port and another to orchestrate personnel support in several sectors. But these - though multi-million-dollar deals - are small in the wider question of how the new Iraq will be built. And who will take part.
With the end of the war looming, there remains a great divide among the United States and British governments, and many European allies whose roles in the reconstruction remain in question.
"Just as we are going to have to rebuild Iraq, we're going to have to bring NATO back to ... consensus and unity," Nicholas Burns, U.S. ambassador to NATO, recently told the Senate foreign relations committee.
Even inside Washington - including U.S. President George W. Bush's inner circle and Congress - there is disagreement on how the reconstruction should proceed. Should it be a a total "clean sweep," a drastic revamp of the country favoured by defence officials, or a straight "head transplant," which the state department favours.
Another debate revolves around the role of the United Nations and countries opposed to the war, including Germany and France. And where does Canada fit in?
A key to the change in Iraq, say experts, is how those in the Muslim world view the coalition - whether as an occupying force, as Khadduri views it, or as the vanguard of a new freedom, as Saffar believes.
To help the transition overcome this hurdle, American officials say they hope to hand over formal duties to an interim Iraqi government, possibly within weeks.
American Secretary of State Colin Powell has promised the UN a part although, he said, "the exact nature of that role remains to be seen."
In the end, neo-conservative Americans believe this is not just about rebuilding Iraq but rather the first democratic domino in the Middle East.
Or it could as easily, say critics, turn into a country filled with warring groups - much like the history of Yugoslavia but with the riches of oil mixed in.
Turn on your television right now, and you can witness this moment in the new Iraq.
What the country will find in the time to come is now as open, and unsecured, as the Baghdad Museum vaults which, until a few days ago, held its past.
Reach Thane Burnett at thane.burnett@tor.sunpub.com or 416-947-2444
 World Fact Book (CIA)]
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