A rchive Date
[ 26-01-2003 ]
Category
[ International Relations ]
sub-Categoy
[ U.S ]
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[http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/nation/1751559
Bush set to begin countdown to war
By RON HUTCHESON
Knight-Ridder Tribune News
Jan. 26, 2003, 8:43AM
WASHINGTON - President Bush will start what his aides say is the countdown to war with Iraq this week by confronting nations around the world with a stark choice between military action or more diplomacy.
The rapid-fire developments are to begin Monday, when U.N. weapons inspectors report on their efforts to find and destroy Iraq's hidden weapons. Bush will make his case for aggressive action the next day in the nationally televised State of the Union speech and could order many more troops into the Gulf to back up U.S. resolve.
The issue bounces back to the United Nations on Wednesday, when the 15-member Security Council goes behind closed doors to debate the next move.
The looming diplomatic showdown has unleashed pent-up resentment of the United States, with potentially far-reaching consequences. Relations between the United States and key European allies are in a downward spiral, and so far the administration has been unable to make Iraq's behavior, not America's, the issue.
In some foreign capitals, the crisis in Iraq is viewed as a classic case of American arrogance. Suspicions about Bush's motives, anger over his seeming disregard for European opinion and longstanding grievances fueled by America's military superiority, economic clout and unrivaled status as the dominant world power are finding voice in the Iraq debate.
According to today's Washington Post, Monday's report will likely fall short of the administration's desire for a harsh assessment that would demonstrate Iraq has consistently violated its disarmament obligations. Painted more in shades of gray than in black and white, the report could provide more ammunition to those countries on the Security Council that want the inspections to continue and that oppose an immediate decision to go to war, senior U.N. officials said.
Those tensions sent the dollar tumbling in world currency markets Friday. In Davos, Switzerland, business and political leaders at the World Economic Forum used the gathering to vent their frustration with U.S. foreign policy, especially on Iraq. Representatives from the Arab League and the European Union urged Bush to stay within the framework of the United Nations and international law.
Even foreign leaders who agree Saddam Hussein is a menace - and many do - don't see justification for war now. At the United Nations, France, Germany, China and Russia have teamed up in an effort to block any U.S. war plans. Great Britain is standing with the United States.
No matter what happens at the United Nations - and the debate could drag on for days or even weeks - Bush says he will not back down.
According to the Washington Post, chief weapons inspector Hans Blix will tell the Security Council on Monday that key questions remain unanswered about Iraq's possible possession of weapons of mass destruction. Furthermore, it will say his meetings last week in Baghdad "gave no signs of major movement" toward full disclosure, say senior U.N. officials.
In what he has insisted will be only an "update" on the weapons inspections program that began in November, Blix plans to note both the negative and the positive aspects of Iraqi cooperation during the first 60 days of inspections, the officials told the Post.
Blix had been prepared to be more positive in his presentation before his meetings in Baghdad last Sunday and Monday, the senior officials said. But Iraqi officials showed little interest in moving away from their position that they have no chemical, biological or nuclear weapons to declare and no more documents to produce. As a result, Blix expects to tell the Security Council that Baghdad has not been "proactive" in assisting the inspectors' access to information, the officials told the Post.
Inside the White House, presidential advisers shrug off the increasingly vocal opposition from allies as well as poll results in this country showing widespread opposition to unilateral military action. Although as many as two-thirds of Americans say they support the use of force against Iraq, support turns to opposition if the United States acts alone or in defiance of the United Nations.
Administration officials insist that Bush would have plenty of backers, both at home and abroad, if he decided to go to war and gave a strong rationale for action. He will not attempt to do that in Tuesday's speech but will explain why he is nearing that point, aides said.
White House aides acknowledge he has not presented a full case for war. "The president will make that case at the appropriate time, in the appropriate way," Karl Rove, Bush's chief political adviser, told reporters.
One senior administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the week's developments would mark "the last phase" of the run-up to war. Still unclear is how long Bush is prepared to wait.
Most military analysts agree it will take at least another month for the Pentagon to mobilize an invasion force in the Persian Gulf. As many as four more U.S. Army divisions could be sent to the area near Iraq from Germany and the United States.
Also unclear is whether the United States will seek a new U.N. resolution authorizing war. Explicit U.N. approval would be the best scenario for Bush, but he and other U.S. officials contend they already have all the authorization they need from previous U.N. resolutions. Faced with the possibility of defeat or a veto from France, Bush may decide to avoid another U.N. vote.
Another option would be to compromise by agreeing to give U.N. weapons inspectors more time - but not much more - to continue their work in Iraq. A British diplomat confirmed that Secretary of State Colin Powell and British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw discussed that possibility during their recent meeting in Washington, but the diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity, stressed that no decisions had been made.
If Bush decides to bypass the United Nations, administration officials express confidence that other nations would join the U.S. and Great Britain in disarming Iraq. The list of possible allies includes Spain, Italy, Australia, Turkey, Qatar, Kuwait and most of Eastern Europe, but overseas support could falter without an explicit U.N. endorsement.
Bush's critics contend that even if the inspectors are unable to ferret out Iraq's deadliest weapons, the team's very presence makes it highly unlikely that Saddam would attempt to use such arms. Go-slow advocates say war should be considered only if inspections and containment efforts fail. Some view war with Iraq as an unnecessary distraction from the war on terrorism and as a potential trigger for more terrorist attacks.
In Bush's view, the inspections have already failed because Saddam has refused to account for chemical and biological weapons that were discovered in previous inspections. At issue are tons of chemical and biological agents as well as thousands of munitions designed for their delivery.
Iraq claims that the prohibited items have been destroyed but has not offered evidence.
"This is not about inspectors. This is about a disarmed Iraq," Bush said last week. "This business about more time - how much time do we need to see clearly that he's not disarming?"
 World Fact Book (CIA)]
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