A rchive Date
[ 09-06-2006 ]
Category
[ International Relations ]
sub-Categoy
[ Terrorism ]
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[http://www.torontosun.com/News/Columnists/Worthington_Peter/2006/06/09/1621721.html
Osama's days numbered
By PETER WORTHINGTON
While the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi won't immediately change much in the insurgency in Iraq, what it does indicate is that Osama bin Laden is probably a dead man walking.
In terms of tactical planning and violent leadership, al-Zarqawi was probably more effective than bin Laden. While he apparently had several close calls, Zarqawi likely knew he could not escape forever. His death in an air strike indicates that despite his ghost-like immunity, U.S. special forces were equally relentless in tracking him down.
As for Osama bin Laden, architect of 9/11, it's inevitable that someday he will be trapped and killed. Be it months or years, it is going to happen. That, too, will not necessarily end violence, but whoever succeeds him (and al-Zarqawi) will alter the dynamics of terror. That's why it is important, if not vital, to eliminate the leaders of insurgency.
Change the leader, and you change the direction - slowly and subtly perhaps, but change nonetheless. It's something that was lost or forgotten in the war against Saddam Hussein. It's always been obvious that Saddam should have been killed rather than captured. Once captured, he should have had a summary trial and been executed, rather than the fiasco of a trial in which he is the stage manager and the most vibrant figure, thereby confirming that he's a leader, albeit a tyrant.
As virtually every dictatorship has proven - when the leader is replaced, often by coup, the ethic of the dictatorship changes. The people continue to be oppressed and without rights, but the style and purpose shifts.
It was that way in Iraq when Abdul Karim Kassem assassinated young King Faisal ... and when Kassem was killed by Col. Aref ... and when Aref was bounced by Saddam Hussein.
A mystery of the war against Saddam is why, in victory, it was felt necessary to try and impose democracy on a region that has never known free political choice. One thing that may change in Baghdad now that al-Zarqawi is confirmed dead, is that the gruesome custom of beheading hostages may ease.
It is alleged that Zarqawi personally sliced off the heads of some hostages - specifically Americans Nick Berg and Gene Armstrong. Associated Press reports that 17 heads have been found in fruit boxes.
Al-Zarqawi was a Jordanian, but also a sadist who seems to have enjoyed gruesome killings. He clearly understood the nature of terror and how to use it.
Nothing has intimidated journalists as effectively as the spectre of being taken hostage and possibly having their heads sawed off on TV for the al-Jazeera network. Journalists have always been willing to risk death by gunfire, bombs, or even assassination. But the TV decapitations pioneered by al-Zarqawi give pause to the most fearless of reporters.
Likely the success in tracking down and killing Zarqawi, 50 kms north of Baghdad, will renew enthusiasm for nailing Osama bin Laden, who has shown cat-like survival traits.
In the early days of the Afghan war, Osama was almost captured (or killed) at Tora Bora, where Canadians were tasked with digging up al-Qaida bodies in hopes that one might have been Osama bin Laden.
The feeling at the time was that British commandos had bin Laden holed up, and were poised to capture or kill him, but they were called off because the Americans wanted to do it, and the operation was put on hold for a couple of days.
In the interim, Pakistani helicopters reportedly flew in and removed Osama and his key leaders. That's essentially what Canadians soldiers who were there say. Still, Osama bin Laden's future is the same as al-Zarqawi's.
The only question is when.
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