A rchive Date
[ 16-07-2005 ]
Category
[ International Relations ]
sub-Categoy
[ Terrorism ]
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[http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8526515/site/newsweek/
The Next Battle: Bridging the Great Divide
America and its allies have had different strategies to fight Al Qaeda. But they're starting to close ranks
By Christopher Dickey and Michael Hirsh
Newsweek
July 18 issue - Outside Brick Lane Mosque, in the heart of London's oldest Muslim community and a short walk from Aldgate, one of the Underground stations that became a bomb scene last week, a steady stream of worshipers converged for Friday prayers. Among them was Bahar Islam, 10 years old. He said his schoolmates had been terrified when their teacher told them about the attack the day before. "I am very worried about the future now," said the boy. He paused, still a little shaken. "I'll be praying it doesn't happen again."
We're all praying it doesn't happen again. But no government, no police force or intelligence service, no politician or preacher can guarantee that it won't. In fact, terrorism experts in Europe and the United States agree that more such attacks are coming. Many are expected to look like the ones in London last week or Madrid last year: coordinated bombings against defenseless civilians. Rarer, because they are much harder to organize and execute, will be attacks that attempt the apocalyptic scale of September 11, 2001. Yet someday, analysts believe, one of these terrorist groups will unleash some kind of device with massive killing power. "We will graduate to bacteriological weapons, to chemical weapons," says French terrorism authority Roland Jacquard. "We can't keep living like nothing's happening."
Still, to accept such events as inevitable is to surrender a part of ourselves and our future to the terrorists. To be able to live "like nothing's happening" is, precisely, what most people want. And slowly since 9/11, the governments of the United States and Europe have been feeling their way toward strategies that might eventually achieve that goal. The basic needs are clear: compatible computer systems to speed the passing of actionable intelligence; common legal standards to permit cross - border collaboration; disruption of financial support for terrorist groups; elimination of safe havens; policies aimed at changing the political, social and economic environments that inspire terrorists. But it's only recently that some sort of tentative consensus has begun to develop about how to do all this.
The great divide has been between the Bush administration, which saw itself as fighting a global war after 9/11, and European countries, which continued to see the challenge essentially as one of law enforcement. Washington initially acted as if few traditional rules, or laws, need apply: it would follow an aggressive policy of targeting potential terrorists and stopping them before they could reach American shores. Most recently, the United States has been turning back civilian airliners from Europe when names on the manifests match those put - often with scant proof - on FBI and other watch lists.
We're all praying it doesn't happen again. But no government, no police force or intelligence service, no politician or preacher can guarantee that it won't. In fact, terrorism experts in Europe and the United States agree that more such attacks are coming. Many are expected to look like the ones in London last week or Madrid last year: coordinated bombings against defenseless civilians. Rarer, because they are much harder to organize and execute, will be attacks that attempt the apocalyptic scale of September 11, 2001. Yet someday, analysts believe, one of these terrorist groups will unleash some kind of device with massive killing power. "We will graduate to bacteriological weapons, to chemical weapons," says French terrorism authority Roland Jacquard. "We can't keep living like nothing's happening."
Still, to accept such events as inevitable is to surrender a part of ourselves and our future to the terrorists. To be able to live "like nothing's happening" is, precisely, what most people want. And slowly since 9/11, the governments of the United States and Europe have been feeling their way toward strategies that might eventually achieve that goal. The basic needs are clear: compatible computer systems to speed the passing of actionable intelligence; common legal standards to permit cross - border collaboration; disruption of financial support for terrorist groups; elimination of safe havens; policies aimed at changing the political, social and economic environments that inspire terrorists. But it's only recently that some sort of tentative consensus has begun to develop about how to do all this.
The great divide has been between the Bush administration, which saw itself as fighting a global war after 9/11, and European countries, which continued to see the challenge essentially as one of law enforcement. Washington initially acted as if few traditional rules, or laws, need apply: it would follow an aggressive policy of targeting potential terrorists and stopping them before they could reach American shores. Most recently, the United States has been turning back civilian airliners from Europe when names on the manifests match those put - often with scant proof - on FBI and other watch lists.
One of the most dramatic examples of new transatlantic cooperation is the supersecret "alliance base," set up in France two years ago. American, British, French, German, Australian and other specialists at the center focus entirely on intelligence - gathering and antiterrorist operations. Their task is not analysis but action.
Of course, coordination continues to be a challenge and not only between countries, but often between security services of the same country. The United States is still trying to streamline its intelligence networks. Germany, where the 9/11 terrorists plotted their attacks, has had particular problems. Surveillance and infiltration of suspect groups is extensive, but domestic intelligence and law enforcement still act like jealous fiefdoms.
Until recently, there was no German law that made it illegal to plot terrorist acts outside the country. That has now changed - and the first person charged under it is Amin Lokman Mohammed, a 31 - year - old Iraqi. He allegedly headed the Munich cell of Ansar Al - Islam, a group tied to terrorist Abu Mussab al - Zarqawi, funneling would - be holy warriors to and from Iraq and financing suicide bombings there.
One of the most dramatic examples of new transatlantic cooperation is the supersecret "alliance base," set up in France two years ago. American, British, French, German, Australian and other specialists at the center focus entirely on intelligence - gathering and antiterrorist operations. Their task is not analysis but action.
Of course, coordination continues to be a challenge and not only between countries, but often between security services of the same country. The United States is still trying to streamline its intelligence networks. Germany, where the 9/11 terrorists plotted their attacks, has had particular problems. Surveillance and infiltration of suspect groups is extensive, but domestic intelligence and law enforcement still act like jealous fiefdoms.
Until recently, there was no German law that made it illegal to plot terrorist acts outside the country. That has now changed - and the first person charged under it is Amin Lokman Mohammed, a 31 - year - old Iraqi. He allegedly headed the Munich cell of Ansar Al - Islam, a group tied to terrorist Abu Mussab al - Zarqawi, funneling would - be holy warriors to and from Iraq and financing suicide bombings there.
Today, in dealing with Iran and Syria, Washington often seems to teeter between impotence and escalation. But in less - publicized areas it has found quieter means of encouraging governments to turn their backs on terrorists. Sudan was a major haven for Osama bin Laden in the early 1990s and was attacked with cruise missiles by the Clinton administration in 1998. This year, however, despite its crimes in Darfur, the Sudanese government saw American aid rise from $630 million to $1 billion. And Al Qaeda is no longer welcome there.
Since George W. Bush's re - election in November, his administration has shown it understands that ruthless efforts to hunt down and kill the bad guys aren't enough. Its democratic - reform campaign in the Arab world is a genuine, if belated, attempt to present what Bush called at the G8 summit a "stronger ideology" of freedom and hope.
Will these trends ultimately end the threat of terror? Not soon. The best we can hope for is that enough lessons will have been learned on all sides that no new generation of terrorists comes after this one - and the generation of 10 - year - old Bahar Islam can live "like nothing's happening."
Today, in dealing with Iran and Syria, Washington often seems to teeter between impotence and escalation. But in less - publicized areas it has found quieter means of encouraging governments to turn their backs on terrorists. Sudan was a major haven for Osama bin Laden in the early 1990s and was attacked with cruise missiles by the Clinton administration in 1998. This year, however, despite its crimes in Darfur, the Sudanese government saw American aid rise from $630 million to $1 billion. And Al Qaeda is no longer welcome there.
Since George W. Bush's re - election in November, his administration has shown it understands that ruthless efforts to hunt down and kill the bad guys aren't enough. Its democratic - reform campaign in the Arab world is a genuine, if belated, attempt to present what Bush called at the G8 summit a "stronger ideology" of freedom and hope.
Will these trends ultimately end the threat of terror? Not soon. The best we can hope for is that enough lessons will have been learned on all sides that no new generation of terrorists comes after this one - and the generation of 10 - year - old Bahar Islam can live "like nothing's happening."
With John Barry in Washington, Tara Pepper and Carla Power in London, Tracy McNicoll and Eric Pape in Paris and Stefan Theil in Berlin
© 2005 Newsweek, Inc.
 World Fact Book (CIA)]
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