A rchive Date
[ 21-03-2003 ]
Category
[ International Relations ]
sub-Categoy
[ U.S ]
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[http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/special/iraq/1828959
United States seek clues about Saddam's fate
Houston Chronicle News Services
March 21, 2003, 4:43AM
U.S. intelligence officials believe Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, possibly accompanied by one or both of his powerful sons, was still inside a compound in southern Baghdad early today when it was struck by a barrage of U.S. bombs and cruise missiles.
Information Minister Mohammed Saeed al-Sahaf told a news conference today that Saddam survived the U.S. air raids.
"They targeted the houses of Saddam Hussein and his family, but they are safe. They are safe," said Sahaf, who branded U.S. President George W. Bush as the "leader of the international criminal gang of bastards."
But intelligence analysts in Washington and operatives working in the region weren't certain whether the Iraqi leader was killed or injured or escaped the attack, according to senior Bush administration officials, who worked Thursday to analyze a videotape of an appearance by Saddam broadcast on Iraqi television within hours of the pre-dawn bombardment.
"The preponderance of the evidence is he was there when the building blew up," said one senior U.S. official with access to sensitive intelligence. The official added that Saddam's sons, Qusay and Uday, may also have been at the compound. "He didn't get out" beforehand, another senior official said of the Iraqi president.
A third administration official said "there is evidence that he (Saddam) was at least injured" because of indications that medical attention was urgently summoned on his behalf. The condition of Saddam's sons, and any others who may have been at the compound, was also unknown, officials said.
While U.S. intelligence monitored Iraqi government communications and movements Thursday to pick up signs of Saddam's fate, the administration's attention was focused on the television appearance by Saddam in which he stated Thursday's date and made reference to "dawn" and an attack by the United States.
Officials said they weren't surprised by the broadcast because they had information that the Iraqi leader had recorded several statements earlier in the week in anticipation of a military strike shortly after the expiration of a U.S. deadline for Saddam and his sons to leave the country.
Officials also said they were receiving conflicting analysis of the identity of the man in the broadcast, noting that Saddam has long been reported to use doubles as a precaution against assassination. Technical analysts, who used digital enhancement techniques and triangulation measurements of facial proportions, assessed that the broadcast depicted the real Saddam.
The wide array of opinions within the government about Saddam's fate - some officials were privately buoyant that he may have been killed, others feared he may have gotten away - mirrored an equally diverse set of motivations inside the administration about how the bombing should be portrayed. The attack came in the midst of an intensifying military campaign designed to intimidate the Iraqi government and military and to sow confusion inside Iraq about the fate of the country's senior leadership.
For almost a year the CIA has been operating under a presidential directive authorizing a covert program to topple the Iraqi leader, including authority to use lethal force and a $200 million budget to bring about a change of government.
Last June, CIA Director George Tenet told Bush and senior Cabinet members that covert operations to eliminate Saddam had only a small chance of working. Tenet stressed that any attempt to remove the Iraqi leader would have to be accompanied by the threat of military force that would pressure those with direct knowledge of or access to Saddam to consider betraying him.
The decision to attack the compound, which Bush and his senior advisers reached during a two-hour discussion at the White House Wednesday afternoon, provided an indication that the intelligence agency has succeeded in establishing an alliance with Iraqis close to Saddam.
Sen. Pat Roberts, R-Kan., chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said Thursday that "what we call human intelligence ... indicated the location of Saddam Hussein and his leadership in a bunker in the suburbs of Baghdad."
Other officials said the CIA had gathered highly sensitive and reliable electronic and other information, using a wide range of assets - from humans in some proximity to the compound to image-snapping satellites miles above.
A knowledgeable official said the underground bunker was part of a secure compound guarded by the Special Security Organization, which is commanded by Saddam's younger son, Qusay, and is principally responsible for the president's safety. While there was no official bomb damage assessment yet, photo analysts said the bunker was severely damaged.
"The bunker was the primary target, but because we couldn't be sure where all the people were, we had to take out some other buildings as well," a senior defense official said.
The information that Saddam was in the compound had been collected over a period of days and was confirmed in the hours prior to the attack. In the White House meeting, Tenet told Bush and other senior leaders that "this is pretty darn good intelligence" that Saddam was in the bunker. As the downsides of the approach were discussed among the president's senior national security advisers, Tenet defended the quality of the information, although others at the session described it as "too good to be true," one official said. "There's no doubt it's worth taking a shot," Tenet argued.
One official argued that the intelligence about Saddam's whereabouts "could be a provocation." By planting the information, "the Iraqis could be luring American aircraft into a trap where they could be shot down," the official said, adding it would then be a propaganda victory for Saddam before the war even started.
Another part of the discussion focused on how the mission would be carried out and how it forced an adjustment in the war plan for invading Iraq drawn up by U.S. Central Command, the official said.
Other administration and congressional sources said Thursday that there are other operations under way aimed at Saddam.
The Washington Post and Reuters News Service contributed to this report.
 World Fact Book (CIA)]
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