A rchive Date
[ 12-02-2003 ]
Category
[ International Relations ]
sub-Categoy
[ Israel ]
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[http://www.canoe.ca/Columnists/downing.html
Israeli voters sent a message to Arafat
By JOHN DOWNING -- Toronto Sun
February 12, 2003
Pondering all the parties and veto issues involved in the formation of a government after Israel's last election is as difficult as watching chess when you don't know the strengths of all the pieces.
My latest guide to the shadows and players in this labyrinth where the decisions concern survival, not just taxes, is a respected journalist, Samuel Segev, who learned the issues of his beloved country at the point of a gun.
When his state was born on May 14, 1948, and seven Arab armies attacked, not wanting to waste any time driving the Jews into the sea, Segev was wounded in the legs. As he was being carried to the hospital, an Egyptian fighter swooped down so low the wounded youth could see the pilot laughing at the easy kill. One of his rescuers died.
For a moment, Segev grows emotional. Then he returns to gossiping endlessly, as all Israelis do, about their politicians. In such a tiny country, the foibles and strengths of leaders are learned not in campaigns but in the schoolyard, the street party and, too often, the battlefield.
Segev tells us Israel is beginning the changing of the guard. In January's election, 50% of the voters were new from just 10 years ago, thanks to immigration, but most of those elected to the Knesset under a complicated parliamentary system (no resemblance to Canada's) are familiar faces.
Yet among those now gone is Yossi Beilin, the deputy foreign minister in September, 1993, when the world was startled to hear about the 17 secret meetings called the Oslo peace talks. Segev says his departure, which began in the previous election, just illustrates that this vote threw the final shovels of dirt on Oslo.
"Oslo is dead. We have to start all over again."
I will never forget that tumultuous week in Jerusalem when I was part of a small seminar on why the peace talks were stalled, only to have this Oslo "breakthrough" announced. We found from tens of thousands of demonstrators that they worried any false euphoria would lead to another Holocaust. PM Yitzhak Rabin told us he hoped there would really be peace in his lifetime - a statement sadly recalled, along with his reluctant handshake on the White House lawn, when he was martyred two years later.
Yasser Arafat may still be around, but in a way he's been buried alive in a grave of isolation, distrust and contempt. He can reach beyond his confinement and reduced power only by phone, but the Israelis tape every syllable. So he talks to aides in the courtyard outside his battered suite, and one expects he covers his mouth, like a major league pitcher talking to his catcher, because Israelis gleefully report the watching satellite is so sensitive it heard him take a pee.
Israel seems to have as many parties as politicians. Eighteen parties had seats in the 15th Knesset elected in 1999, while 13 have seats in this one. The important changes come in the big two: Likud (led by Ariel Sharon as the tough PM and his photogenic rival, former PM Benjamin Netanyahu), and its traditional opponent, Labour (led by Amram Mitzna, the experienced general and mayor who is now perceived as not adept enough as a state leader, and the veteran, Shimon Peres). Likud was expected to win, despite scandals over Sharon's outside political funds, but it doubled its seats (to 38), while Labour dropped six (to 19).
The surprising change, however, came with the party running third, even though Shinui's success was hinted at in surveys. In a state founded by a persecuted religion, a non-religious party in the centre, led by a flamboyant former journalist, would not be expected to grow from six to 15 seats.
There are 120 Knesset seats, so once again no party has a majority. It's expected Sharon will cobble together a stout right-wing government by promising other parties things dear to their platforms, or by not taking actions they hate. There are five ideological blocs, with Likud being part of the 52 votes in the secular nationalists and Labour being part of 25 votes in the Zionist left. As Segev points out, "all the factions have one big 'no' about something."
The election also sent one big no to the Palestinians. There can be no doubt now their intifada is a huge failure and has backfired savagely. Not only did it not break the Israeli will, voters decisively rejected the pro-peace policies of Labour in favour of the shield of Sharon, who's not opposed to negotiations but will not resume them until terrorism stops.
Now Israelis wait to see how the Palestinians react to this clear message. There are other concerns, too. Will the U.S. send $12 billion in aid and loans to repair an economy ravaged by suicide bombers? Will Saddam attack Israel in response to a U.S. attack on Iraq, as he did last time?
Then there is the alleged funding scandal reaching out to Sharon and a son. Segev says this could be huge: "If Sharon is brought down and Netanyahu takes over, everything I said today changes."
Letters to the editor should be sent to editor@sunpub.com. Downing appears Fridays, Sundays
 World Fact Book (CIA)]
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