A rchive Date
[ 11-12-2002 ]
Category
[ International Relations ]
sub-Categoy
[ Canada ]
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[http://www.canoe.ca/Columnists/mansur_london.html
Let voters decide fate of Kyoto Protocol
By SALIM MANSUR - For the London Free Press
December 11, 2002
Prime Minister Jean Chretien ended debate over the Kyoto Protocol and is seeking its ratification, even as Canadians become increasingly skeptical about its merit.
The Kyoto Protocol is about reducing greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming.
The extent of global warming is disputed by some scientists. There is also disagreement on how much warming is caused naturally by a combination of Earth's wobbling rotation on the tilt of its axis, its orbit around the sun, solar input, the activities of the atmosphere and oceans, the water cycle of clouds, ice and snow, the topography of Earth and land use and, finally, human activities in terms of burning fossil fuel.
Since Kyoto deals with carbon dioxide emissions, let's consider what science says.
Freeman Dyson is a professor of physics at the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton who has an impeccable reputation as a scientist. In a paper on carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the biosphere presented at Oxford in 1990, Dyson discussed the phenomenon of missing carbon. Observations and calculations of the carbon cycle indicate half the carbon burned appears in the atmosphere and the other half can't be accounted for.
"Taking fuel burning and environmental destruction together, human activities are putting nine gigatons of carbon per year into the atmosphere," Dyson said. "More than half the carbon is missing."
The implication of the missing carbon in computing the flow of carbon in the atmosphere and the biosphere means, according to Dyson, "uncertainties dominate the certainties" and the "size of the deficit indicates the size of the errors in our estimates of the flows."
In the scientific journal Physics and Society of January 2000, 10 years after the Oxford lecture, Dyson wrote that computer models, in the absence of new findings based on actual observations and measurements, were tools for understanding climate, but inadequate for predicting climate.
"If we persevere patiently with observing the real world and improving the models, the time will come when we are able both to understand and to predict," Dyson said. "Until then, we must continue to warn the politicians and the public, don't believe the numbers just because they come out of a supercomputer."
Skepticism about Kyoto is genuine. While scientists on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) tentatively indicated human influence on climate, others, such as those who met last week in Washington, continue to question the assumptions of Kyoto.
Then comes the question of costs to the economy when the United States, largest economy in the world, in addition to the developing economies of China, India, Brazil and Mexico, will not be bound by the accord.
The record of Chretien Liberals on estimating costs and controlling expenditures - we may recall the scandal of the Human Resources Department and the spiralling cost of gun registry - doesn't instil confidence that they have it remotely right on Kyoto.
All public policy, good intent aside, must meet the responsibility test. While individuals may choose to act on incomplete or unproven information, such behaviour on the part of government would be irresponsible.
The right thing on Kyoto, given the disagreement across the country, the unproven nature of science surrounding it, the uncertainty of cost in implementing a treaty where details have been fudged as the government remains unsure of what the public is being asked to adopt, would be to do the honourable thing in a democracy and let the issue be decided in an election.
There is a precedent. Brian Mulroney, the former Conservative prime minister, settled the debate over free trade with the United States by referring it to the Canadian public in a general election.
Chretien could do as much, letting Canadians decide on accepting or rejecting the Kyoto Protocol.
Salim Mansur is a professor of political science at the University of Western Ontario. His column appears alternate Wednesdays. Letters to the editor should be sent to letters@lfpress.com
 World Fact Book (CIA)
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