A rchive Date
[ 11-10-2000 ]
Category
[ International Relations ]
sub-Categoy
[ Mass Media ]
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[Writing on the Wall: Is Print Dead?
By Gene Gable, General Manager, and Craig Cline, VP Content, Seybold Seminars, March 29, 2000
In the pivotal keynote at the recent Seybold Seminars Boston Publishing 2000 conference, we presented statistical data showing that commercial printing is virtually a no-growth industry. And in today's rapidly expanding economy, zero-growth really implies an industry in decline.
And while Thad McIlroy and the rest of the panel gave some logical reasons why this is happening, I wanted to highlight a few reasons that are not so easy to document with charts and statistics.
First, there is the generational factor. Let's face it - today's young folks are being raised in front of computer screens. They surf the Web, they do their homework digitally, they carry cell phones, they play video games, and they listen to MP3 music. The emotional attachment to print is simply weaker than it is among those of us who still care about reproduction quality and have fond childhood memories of reading books.
I don't think you can underestimate the effect different generations on the use of print. The music industry easily advnaced from 78 rpm records to 33 1/3, then to CDs and now to MP3, not necessarily by convincing everyone the new formats were better, but by timing their conversions with the music-buying habits of progressive generations.
Many schools are already looking at e-books as a possible way to keep text more current and avoid the problems associated with kids lugging around heavy backpacks. It's only going to take an e-book on the desk of every third grader to wean an entire generation away from print.
The second unknown factor is the environmental one. Print simply doesn't make any sense. You cut down a tree, run it through extremely wasteful processing, ship it halfway around the world to a printing plant, print on it, then ship it back half way across the world. And if you're lucky, the reader puts it out for recycling where it is once again handled, shipped, and processed, beginning the entire cycle all over again.
I feel strongly that as new generations evaluate the alternatives, we may see a time when reading a printed magazine has a stigma similar to smoking a cigarette today. We'll allow it, but most people will agree it's harmful. And, quite frankly, it is.
The last mystery factor is unknown technology. A number of companies are already working on e-paper - hybrid substances that are effectively re-usable sheets that can be imaged over and over again. This type of material would obviously provide the benefits of electronic documents with the feel and practicality of printed ones. And they avoid the environmental issues.
But all these factors affecting print pale in comparison to the rapid development of the Internet and the transformation it is making of every aspect of our economy. The internet and the web has made apparent that many forms of print that always appeared to be sacrosanct were merely the means of capturing interaction in a 2-D world. As a result, reference manuals and most computer industry documentation have given way to searchable electronic document databases and online documentation enriched by hyperlinks, increasing the efficiency of research by several factors. Newspaper classifieds are turning out to be the poor man's electronic auction, with sites such as Ebay coming out with regional editions for the selling of cars and other large durable goods. The list goes on and on.
So while many of us are big fans of beautiful printing and rich documents, I believe the writing is on the wall (or the screen). Paper-based information distribution is a dying concept. It's only a question of how long the patient has to go.
So as we struggle to develop the standards on which we're building the web in internet time realize that we're laying the groundwork for the next great wave of human communication. Move over, Guttenburg - it's the Internet's turn to change the way we collaborate and communciate.]
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