A rchive Date
[ 28-01-2003 ]
Category
[ International Relations ]
sub-Categoy
[ Canada ]
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[http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Canada/2003/01/28/17198-cp.html
Conference told Saddam-free Iraq could fuel more conflict in Middle East
By BILL GRAVELAND
Tue, January 28, 2003
CALGARY (CP) - The removal of Saddam Hussein in Iraq could create a whole new set of problems in the strife-torn region, say experts at an international oil conference in Calgary.
"Winning the war in Iraq may be the easy part," said Julian Lee, senior energy analyst for the London-based Centre for Global Energy Studies Tuesday. "I think securing the peace after the war is over is going to be the real challenge." Lee said many Americans believe a change of regime in Iraq will cause the first of a series of virtuous dominoes to fall around the Middle East. He believes such a scenario is highly unlikely.
"They argue the change will put pressure on the Mullah's in Iran, and the grip of the Mullah's on Iranian society will crumble. With that will go the support for Hezbollah and other militant organizations in the Middle East," said Lee.
"I think that it will push matters in the other direction and make the solution to regional problems much more difficult."
Alberto Cisneros-Lavaller, senior advisor for Petroleos de Venezuela, said there are three possible outcomes that could result from a US assault on Iraq.
The first would be a rapid attack such as the one in Afghanistan while the second could involve a prolonged conflict in which Saddam Hussein retaliates against other Middle Eastern countries that support the United States.
The third possibility is the most troubling, said Cisneros-Lavaller.
"We could see what I consider like the Holocaust scenario. It would be opening some sort of Pandora Box in the Middle East because of retaliatory attacks by Saddam," he said.
"It could promote and grow the radical Islamic population of those neighbouring countries to rebel against the monarchies or the authorities of all those countries."
The United States would also have to resign itself to a long-term presence in Iraq if it topples the Saddam Hussein regime and installs a transitional government, he said.
Such ongoing involvement would not be politically popular with the American public.
Cisneros-Lavaller predicts military action to take place within a six-week period beginning in mid-February. He said it would still be cool enough to launch a desert attack and consumer demand traditionally drops at that time of year.
A US invasion is likely to have a drastic impact on short-term oil prices.
Michael Lynch, a research affiliate with the Center for International Studies from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) said there is no sign of a break for consumers for at least six months.
"Part of the problem is if there's no invasion of Iraq you have the expected invasion of Iraq still putting pressure on prices," he said.
"But because you have very low inventories and no spare capacity in OPEC any attack in Iraq is going to put you in the danger zone-and the prices could be over $40 or over $50."
Cisneros-Lavaller said prices could spike even higher if you factor in the general strike that has crippled Venezuela's oil industry.
"Some experts would consider that we can hit something like $80 per barrel oil because the cut off supplies is almost certain while the coming back of supply is not so instantaneous."
Lee also warned a new government in Iraq isn't going to automatically bring peace and democracy or open the door to new investment in the oil and gas sector.
"I think Iraq is going to make Afghanistan, in the post-Taliban era, seem like a model of the way to run a country," said Lee. "There are numerous examples around the world of countries that have been held together by a brutal dictator - who when that dictator is removed go through long periods of turmoil and upheaval."
 World Fact Book (CIA)]
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